Overview

Monthly Preliminary Motor-Vehicle Fatality Estimates – March 2026

Typically, motor-vehicle deaths display a distinct, seasonal pattern, with peaks occurring in summer and fall and the fewest deaths occurring in February. This seasonal trend is strongly influenced by a similar mileage trend (more miles traveled in summer and fewer miles traveled in winter). Death rates per 100 million vehicle miles traveled also tend to be highest in the summer and fall and lowest in the winter, particularly in March.

During and following the great recession of 2008 and 2009, mileage, deaths, and death rates per 100 million miles traveled all decreased. These decreases occurred gradually over months and years. The lowest number of deaths, miles driven, and death rates did not occur until February 2010, well after the recession ended.

The impact that COVID-19 had on motor-vehicle fatality trends was dramatic and distinctly different from previous recession periods. First, the impact on the number of deaths occurred very rapidly, decreasing 3% in March 2020 and 17% in April 2020. Starting in June 2020, we saw trends rapidly reversing, with a 16% increase compared to the previous year. During the summer months of 2021, the rapid increase in the number of deaths plateaued, increasing only 1% on average per month. Currently, NSC estimates that March 2026 mileage increased by 1.6% compared to 2025. With the increase in mileage, combined with a decrease in number of deaths, the March 2026 death rate decreased by 7.0% compared to March 2025.

Source:  Death data from 1999 through 2024 are from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Preliminary death counts in 2025 and 2026 are NSC estimates. Motor-vehicle rates are based on mileage estimates from the Federal Highway Administration. Recession periods are from the National Bureau of Economic Research.