Labor Day Holiday Period Estimate for 2022
The National Safety Council (NSC) estimates 456 people may die on U.S. roads this Labor Day holiday period. This year’s holiday fatality estimate is 2% lower than the 2021 Labor Day estimate of 466, reflecting the recent decrease in motor-vehicle deaths in 2022. Holidays traditionally are a time of travel for families across the United States. Many choose car travel, which has the highest fatality rate of any major form of transportation based on fatalities per passenger mile. Holidays are also often a cause for celebrations involving alcohol consumption, a major contributing factor to motor-vehicle crashes. Labor Day is observed on the first Monday in September. The holiday is always a 3.25-day weekend consisting of Friday evening, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In 2022, the Labor Day weekend extends from 6 p.m. Friday, September 2, to 11:59 p.m. Monday, September 5.
Visit the Holiday Introduction page for a list of holiday periods and their definitions.
National Safety Council Estimate
There is uncertainty associated with any estimate. The 90% confidence interval for the estimate of traffic deaths this holiday is 375 to 545. This chart shows NSC Labor Day holiday fatality estimates and confidence intervals compared to the actual number of deaths. The latest final fatality data available are for 2020. NSC underestimated the actual number of Labor Day deaths in 2020 by 23%. The predictive model used for the Labor Day estimate was not able to anticipate the rapid increase in September traffic deaths after unusually low deaths in both April and May resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic travel restrictions. Prior to 2020, all but three of the NSC Labor Day forecasts have fallen within the confidence range.
- Data Table
Source: Estimates and confidence intervals are calculated by NSC; actual deaths reflect NSC analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data.
A medically consulted injury is an injury serious enough that a medical professional was consulted. Based on the current medically consulted injury to death ratio of 114:1 and rounded to the nearest hundred, the estimate of nonfatal medically consulted injuries that will result from crashes during the holiday period is 52,000, with a 90% confidence interval of 42,700 to 62,100.
Lives saved with seat belts
Studies show seat belts, when used, are 45% effective in preventing fatalities among front-seat passenger car occupants (see note below for more detail). An estimated 181 lives may be saved this Labor Day holiday period because vehicle occupants wear their seat belts. An additional 106 lives could be saved if everyone wears seat belts.
Nationwide, alcohol-impaired fatalities (involving blood-alcohol content of 0.08 g/dL or higher) in 2020 represented 30% of the total traffic fatalities. During the Labor Day period, 38% of the fatalities involved an alcohol-impaired driver. This chart shows the historic trend of the percent of fatalities involving an alcohol-impaired driver.
- Data Table
Source: NHTSA, Traffic Safety Facts Annual Report Tables
Note: Highest blood-alcohol concentration among drivers or motorcycle riders involved in the crash was 0.08 grams per deciliter (g/dL) or higher. The holiday periods used to calculate the percentages conform to NHTSA holiday period definitions that add another quarter day to the periods used for the NSC estimate.
Although the reduction in the risk of fatal injury from wearing seat belts is higher for light-truck occupants at 50%, the lower figure for passenger car occupants is used in the calculations here as the more conservative measure. The most recent data from FARS indicate that seat belt use by fatally injured passenger car and light truck occupants was 48.4%.