Preliminary Semiannual Estimates

Deaths down 1% as mileage continues to rebound in first half of 2022

The National Safety Council (NSC) estimate of total motor-vehicle deaths for the first six months of 2022 is 21,340, down 1% from 21,530 in 2021 but up 15% from 18,533 in 2020. Mileage in the first six months of 2022 increased 2.8% from 2021 and was up 15.9% from 2020. The estimated mileage death rate in the first half of 2022 is 1.34 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, down 3.6% from 1.39 in 2021 and down 0.7% from 1.35 in 2020. However, the mileage death rate is still up 16.5% from pre-COVID normal in 2019 (1.15).

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports the official mortality estimates for the United States and is used as a comparison to judge the accuracy of NSC preliminary estimates. The publication of NCHS final mortality estimates generally lags about one year. The most recent NCHS final estimate shows 18,533 deaths occurring in the first half of 2020. This compares to the NSC initial estimate of 18,300 with a difference of 233 deaths (1% difference).

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