Although the availability of ADAS features in new vehicles is expanding rapidly, full penetration into the existing passenger vehicle fleet is likely to take decades. The average age of passenger vehicles in the United States has increased 9.6% in the last 10 years. The current average age of a passenger vehicle in the United States is 12.5 years. Given the number of older vehicles on U.S. roads, the full safety benefit of ADAS technologies will take years.
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The Highway Loss Data Institute estimates that by 2027 three ADAS systems will be present in half or more registered vehicles. By 2027, approximately 73% of registered vehicles will be equipped with rear cameras, 63% will have rear parking sensors, and 51% will have front crash prevention. In contrast, by 2027 only 14% of registered vehicles are likely to have curve-adaptive headlights, and only 19% are likely to be equipped with adaptive cruise control with lane centering.
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To start forecasting the potential impact ADAS technologies may have on traffic safety, a recent NHTSA study identified the crashes occurring today that could be prevented or mitigated if all vehicles where equipped with ADAS technologies. The estimates provided on this page also assume that the ADAS technologies are fully effective in preventing or mitigating the crashes they are designed to impact.
ADAS can be organized into five broad groups, each representing multiple technologies:
- Group 1: Forward collision prevention
- Forward collision warning
- Automatic emergency braking
- Brake assist
- Group 2: Lane keeping
- Lane departure warning
- Lane keeping assist
- Lane centering assist
- Group 3: Blind zone detection
- Blind spot warning
- Blind spot intervention
- Lane change merge
- Group 4: Forward pedestrian impact avoidance
- Pedestrian detection
- Group 5: Backing collision avoidance
- Reverse automatic braking
- Back-up warning
- Rear traffic alert
It is estimated that collectively these five ADAS technology groups could impact 3.59 million total crashes per year, or about 62% of all crashes. Forward collision prevention accounts for 1.7 million crashes, while lane keeping assist impacts another 1.12 million crashes.
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ADAS technologies have the potential to prevent 20,841 deaths per year, or about 62% of total traffic deaths. Lane keeping assist accounts for 14,844 of this savings, while pedestrian automatic braking accounts for another 4,106 lives saved.
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ADAS technologies can also potentially prevent or mitigate 1.69 million injuries (about 60% of total traffic injuries). The majority of the injury reduction is achieved by forward collision prevention and lane keeping assist.
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ADAS technologies are also estimated to prevent or mitigate damage to 4.60 million vehicles. This estimate is limited to crashes with only property damage and does not include potential damage reduction during more severe crashes. The majority of damage reduction is achieved through forward collision prevention (about 57%).
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Sources:
Age of passenger vehicle fleet: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Retrieved on 4/5/2024 from: https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
Wang, J.-S. (2019, March). Target crash population for crash avoidance technologies in passenger vehicles (Report No. DOT HS 812 653). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Highway Loss Data Institute (April 2023). Predicted availability of safety features on registered vehicles – 2023 update. Bulletin, Vol.40, No. 2.